invest without emotions

Emotions often override reason when it comes to investment decisions, leading to irrational and destructive behavior

Positive Periods of Stocks

To Understand How Markets Work

Market Volatility and the impact of long term investing

Investment Behaviour

...you will also obtain an enlightening education on science-based and ruels-based investing that may forever change the way you perceive how the stock market works...

Active Managed Funds 

...on average, only 9 funds remained in the top 100 the following year... top-performing funds have failed to maintain their position throughout a meaningful subsequent period...

...for all three time frames studied, actively managed funds were convincingly beaten. For example, a whopping 88% of actively managed large cap funds failed to beat the S&P 500 during the five-year period ending 2016. Incredibly, the statistical underperformance by active managers got worse as investment time horizons extended from short to long-term....

Activley managed funds lagging behind

Fund category

large S&P500

mid s&p400

small s&p600

5year

88%

90%

96%

10year

85%

96%

96%

15year

92%

95%

93%


source: 31 Dec 2016 S&P Dow Jones Indices - The Wall Street Journal 

The Gurus


Nobody can consistently predict the market

Highly paid storytellers

Zurich ethnologist Stefan Leins examines why financial analysts are so powerful - despite the fact that forecasts are usually incorrect.

 

Ethnologists usually travel to foreign countries for their research. Stefan Leins has stayed in Zurich and immersed himself in a world that seems to many as strange as a remote island: the Zurich ethnologist deals with financial analysts who make forecasts about the future of the economy and the stock market in the banks. He wanted to find an answer to the question of why analysts have a prominent position, even though their forecasts are seldom reliable.

 

Research has long since shown that analysts hardly surpass statistical chance. Monkeys or cats have achieved better performance than human analysts in experiments with a portfolio. Adam Monk, for example, is a capuchin monkey who has been recommending stocks to a US newspaper for years. He randomly bet on stocks in a long list and with his tips was 37 percent above the performance of the stock market.

 

source: TagesAnzeiger 2.10.2017

Downside Protection

Dow vs SP500 Index